Category: Uncategorized

What makes this recovery different is that it follows a recession brought on by a financial crisis. A growing body of research has found that such recoveries tend to be slower than those after “normal” recessions. Prakash Kannan, an economist at the IMF, examined 83 recessions in 21 rich countries since 1970. In the first two years after normal recessions growth averaged 3.7%. After the 13 caused by crises, growth averaged 2.4%. America has been doing slightly better than this (see chart 1).

The Federal Reserve brought on most post-war recessions by raising interest rates to squeeze out inflation. When the Fed cut rates, demand revived. Financial crises interfere with the transmission of lower rates to private borrowers. People can’t or won’t borrow because the value of their collateral—in particular, houses—has fallen. Banks are less able to lend because their capital has been depleted by bad loans, or less willing because customers can’t meet tighter underwriting standards.

The great debt drag, The Economist

The constitution is a thing of wonder, all the more miraculous for having been written when the rest of the world’s peoples were still under the boot of kings and emperors (with the magnificent exception of Britain’s constitutional monarchy, of course). But many of the tea-partiers have invented a strangely ahistorical version of it. For example, they say that the framers’ aim was to check the central government and protect the rights of the states. In fact the constitution of 1787 set out to do the opposite: to bolster the centre and weaken the power the states had briefly enjoyed under the new republic’s Articles of Confederation of 1777.

The perils of constitution-worship, The Economist

Everyone’s seen the spy movie where the spy knows that it is 37 steps from the front door down the hallway, turn left at the hall with the painting of the old man, 14 more steps, through the door on the right, using the passcode ‘61728’, and that he has 67 seconds to do all this and get back out before one of the two guards comes around the corner.

Much more impressive than the spy movie where the spy knows that he goes inside, turns left, and then goes through the door with the passcode ‘617..something’. Oh and don’t get caught, there might be a guard.

Which spy do you have more faith in? The first, because that spy clearly has a better plan — it’s got more detail. He’s able to be specific about the instructions. You could probably step in for the first spy and pull off the first caper, but not the second.

Specifics are how high performers are able to perform — this isn’t some wobbly idea based on a bad spy movie.

A motorcycle rider does not just follow the track, turning when he sees the corner. He knows the course — he can be specific.

A good motorcycle rider knows that there’s a straightaway, followed by a left and a right, then another bit of straightaway, etc.

A great motorcycle rider knows that there’s a long hard straight, and when he comes up to the ‘250’ marker, to be on the outside right, hard on the brakes down to 65, revs at 4500, through the chicane.

Specifics are good because they can be proven right or wrong, unlike vague statements which can be twisted moment-to-moment.

Every once in a while, take a step back and think about “What groups of things am I working with?”

For example, Twitter. You can follow lots of people, but it doesn’t always make sense with people from your different interests (work, friends, family, celebrities, bands, news, restaurants) to be intermashed. So, you’ve got lists.

Same thing happens in biology, “Hey these things all look/act the same”. From this simple idea, Darwin achieved fame and changed the world.

It’s an obvious thing, but people often don’t take that moment. Take the time to step back and say “what are the basic groups of things I’m seeing / activities I’m doing”.

It helps find larger trends, and as soon as you deal with groups, you can find shortcuts and optimizations. Imagine how little you would get done if your visual system identified every object in a group.

Assuming you are not Rainman, and also assuming you are not a gardener or landscape architect, you see “a house with a bunch of bushes in front”, and not “a house with 19 evenly spaced plants in front of the sidewalk, two on either side of the doorway, 7 around the lamppost…” Your visual system automatically groups objects to serve as a mental shortcut.

Of course, there are benefits to being specific, as well.

Great article from the SF Chronicle (although sometimes a bit too suck-uppy) on how the French Laundry runs. Well worth a read if you’re into food, or high performers.

Wow, Internet. You are fast. Specifically, Nina is fast. Good job also to Michael, Jason, and Jessica.

The other day I asked “Why is there a lobster carved into the Notre Dame Cathedral?“. Turns out that it’s not exactly a lobster — it’s a crab.

The door that they now use as the exit of the cathedral is called the Portal of the Virgin, and the panels around it represent the cycles of earthly life. The “lobster” is Cancer the Crab, and represents June.

One thing that came up often is the idea that the symbolism of the lobster might have something to do with the fact that it used to be a poor man’s food. It turns out that is true, but only in North America. When Europeans first started coming here, lobsters were everywhere along the coast. It was easy to harvest them, so poor families who didn’t have other options for food would go out to the water and bring them home. Over time, lobster became known as a food for the poor.

In Europe however, people were really into them. The Romans used them as subject matter in the arts and the Turks used their shells as inspiration for armor. Lobsters were widely used for treating inflammation of the eye, stomach aches, epilepsy, kidney stones, and other urinary conditions. In France, a type of lobster called the Royal Blue was eaten by the upper class families, and they even had artists depict them eating lobster.

So, when they were building the cathedral, people were really into Nature, which is reflected in the belief in Zodiac signs, and that’s why it surrounds one of the main doorways.

Learning is awesome!

Bonus links:

• http://www.sacred-destinations.com/france/paris-notre-dame-cathedral-photos/slides/xti_9890.htm
• http://homecooking.about.com/od/foodhistory/a/lobsterhistory.htm
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre_Dame_de_Paris
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobster

There are two ways, though, that the debts can decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans, forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for almost all the decline.

Defaults Account for Most of Pared Down Debt

It’s always important to understand how numbers are arrived at.

I just had the following interaction with Comcast via Twitter. I will give them this — I appreciate that they’re using Twitter for customer support, and I’d love to see more companies do this. It does take a modern attitude to put support out in a public space where people can make fun of their missteps. Like this one:

“took care of the adjustments” huh? Guess I don’t have to pay bills anymore. Thanks Comcast! <3

It is a very long time ago in a farming town. Andrew, Ben, and Charlie are farmers who live on the same road, who all know and trust each other. Ben has a problem with his tractor one day, and happens to mention it to Andrew. Andrew offers to check it out — he’s fixed his own tractor many times and might be able to help Ben out. They go over to Ben’s house, and sure enough, the fuel filter is clogged up. Being on a farm, Andrew is resourceful enough to be able to clean it out. When he puts everything back together, the tractor fires up right away.

“Thanks Andrew!”, Ben says. “Let me tell you what. If it weren’t for this, I wouldn’t have been able to properly harvest my wheat. When the harvest comes this fall, I’m going to give you 10 extra bushels of wheat. Let me give you a note so that I don’t forget.”

Next week, Charlie is over at Andrew’s farm for a visit. They’re walking around together, talking about their respective farms, and wondering if anyone will ever invent Genetic Engineering to help improve crop yields (since it is a very long time ago). It is a sunny day, and Andrew notices Charlie’s hat. “Darn, Charlie. That is a very nice hat.”

“Thanks Andrew. I made it myself. Took a while, but it’s really nice to keep the sun out of my eyes.”

“I could use a hat myself, but I’m so busy with my farm, I just don’t have the time. Say, you could use some extra wheat, right?”

“Yeah, like everyone else in town, we love to bake bread, and could always use some extra wheat. Why do you ask?”

Andrew explains to Charlie how he had fixed Ben’s tractor, and as a token of appreciation, Ben promised to give Andrew 10 bushels of wheat. “Look Charlie, we both know Ben is a great farmer, and a stand up guy. He’ll definitely harvest enough wheat that there will be 10 extra bushels. He wrote his promise down on this note so that we wouldn’t forget. What if I give you the note, and when fall comes, we’ll have Ben give you the 10 bushels of wheat instead? Would you make me a hat now?”

Charlie agrees, and Andrew hands over Ben’s note. So that everyone is clear on what happened, Andrew writes an explanation on the back of the note, and signs his name as proof that it is official.

Ben is a social guy around town, and especially proud of his new hat, is out quite often. As farmers do, they talk about their farms, and occasionally people offer Ben advice or help. Being a nice guy, he often offers bushels of wheat as thanks to people who help him. He always comes through with the wheat, and does it so often that everyone in town has heard of this practice.

It becomes so common that when other townsfolk want to show each other appreciation for a favor done, they will sometimes give the other person one of Ben’s notes, which by now fill their pockets. When fall comes, everyone meets at Ben’s farm to say hello, and cash in their notes, which by now have gotten their own slang — they are called Benjamins. After receiving their share of the bushels, the townsfolk go directly home and start baking bread — a day that after many years becomes known as “dough day”. For the rest of the season, their town always smells like fresh baking bread.